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Tim Ruttentr.
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Chart lab

GTM Alpha, visualised

Nine ways to draw the argument: time on the x-axis, value capture on the y-axis, and the gap that different execution opens up above the market baseline. Each chart is labelled with the framework that draws it.

Every number on this page comes from an illustrative model of the essay’s logic, not from reported data. Each chart has a “View data” table under it.

The thesis

Alpha is the gap, not the slope

Value capture index · quarter 0

D3 + Motion · scroll-linked
100150200250300TodayQ4Q8Q12Q16Q20Market baselineVendor-ledProprietaryα +22%

01 · The rising baseline

The market keeps getting better.

Market baseline
100
Vendor-led
108α 8.0%
Proprietary
108α 8.0%

  1. 01 · The rising baseline

    The market keeps getting better.

    Every market has an execution baseline: what a capable competitor achieves with commercially available technology. AI is pushing it up every quarter.

  2. 02 · Better, but indistinguishable

    A vendor-led company improves with it.

    Its small head start erodes as the same tools and playbooks reach everyone. It becomes more efficient and less different.

  3. 03 · A proprietary motion

    The other company compounds.

    Its GTM system learns from every interaction and creates new edge faster than the market can copy the old one.

  4. 04 · GTM Alpha

    Alpha is the gap, not the slope.

    Both lines go up. Only the distance above the baseline counts as advantage. That shaded band is GTM Alpha.

The rising baseline

Yesterday's innovation becomes tomorrow's minimum

02IT doesn't matter, faster every time

D3 · Server Component · 0 KB JS
0%20%40%60%80%100%Launch25 yrs50 yrs50% adoptionElectricity: half adoption after ~30 years~30 yrsElectricityEnterprise IT: ~99% adoption after ~27 yearsEnterprise IT: half adoption after ~14 years~14 yrsEnterprise ITAI-native GTM: ~99% adoption after ~7 yearsAI-native GTM: half adoption after ~3.5 years~3.5 yrsAI-native GTM
Carr's argument on a shared timeline: once half the market has a capability, owning it stops differentiating. Electricity took decades to get there. AI-native GTM is getting there in a few years.
View data
TechnologyYears to 50% adoptionAdoption after 5 years
Electricity301%
Enterprise IT144%
AI-native GTM3.589%

03The noise floor rises

Recharts · synced small multiples

Outbound touches per buyer (index)

Reply rate (%)

Same tools, same signals, same playbooks: more touches per buyer and fewer replies. Two measures get two charts instead of a dual axis. Hover either chart and both cursors move.
View data
PeriodTouches (index)Reply rate
20221004.2%
H2 2022112.43.81%
20231323.36%
H2 2023158.52.92%
2024193.52.52%
H2 2024239.42.15%
2025299.31.82%
H2 2025377.81.54%
2026480.91.29%

Your GTM motion is your IP

The advantage comes from how the parts work together

04The system, not the parts

Recharts · emphasis bars
Strategy, talent, and technology each add a little on their own. Combined into one GTM system, they add far more than their sum.
View data
IngredientAdvantage index
Technology only1.5×
Talent only2.5×
Strategy only3×
Any two5.5×
All three, as one system12×

05Buy the infrastructure, build the advantage

Recharts · diverging stacked bars
Bought (generic)Built (proprietary)
Buy what's generic and build the logic that makes you different. Toggle the two companies: the vendor-led one buys nearly every layer.
View data
LayerProprietary: builtVendor-led: built
Infrastructure5%0%
Data & enrichment25%5%
Intelligence55%10%
Decision logic90%20%
Workflows & agents80%15%

You can get better and still fall behind

Both improve. Only one creates alpha.

06Same data, two framings

Recharts · animated view swap
ProprietaryVendor-ledMarket baseline
In absolute terms all three lines climb. Switch to the market-relative view: the vendor-led company's edge goes to zero while the proprietary motion's edge keeps growing.
View data
QuarterBaselineVendor-ledProprietary
Today100108108
Q4119.3124.3138.1
Q8142.2145.8169.7
Q12169.6172.6205
Q16202.2205.1246
Q20241.2244.2294.1

07Alpha simulator

D3 + Motion · interactive model
5%
6%
10%
You, absolute
+165.3%
vs. today
Market, absolute
+220.7%
vs. today
GTM Alpha in Q20
-17.3%
behind baseline
Alpha above baselineBelow baseline
-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%TodayQ4Q8Q12Q16Q20
Set your improvement rate, the market's, and how fast your lead gets copied. Try “Better, still behind”: you improve by more than 150% and still finish below the baseline.

The competition is pace

Keep creating advantages before the old ones disappear

08Shelf life of a proprietary workflow

Recharts · bars
A workflow that took months to engineer becomes reproducible in days. That makes every edge shorter-lived.
View data
YearMonths to replicate
201624
201818
202012
20227
20243
20260.5

09Yesterday's alpha, tomorrow's baseline

D3 + Motion · in-view playback
Your executionMarket baseline
100120140160180200TodayQ4Q8Q12Q16Q20Reinvention at Q2: execution 112.3, baseline 104.6Reinvention at Q4: execution 122.2, baseline 111.9Reinvention at Q6: execution 132.1, baseline 120.6Reinvention at Q8: execution 142, baseline 129.8Reinvention at Q10: execution 151.9, baseline 139.4Reinvention at Q12: execution 161.8, baseline 149.1Reinvention at Q14: execution 171.7, baseline 159Reinvention at Q16: execution 181.6, baseline 168.8Reinvention at Q18: execution 191.5, baseline 178.7Reinvention at Q20: execution 201.4, baseline 188.6
Average alpha
+5.3%
Time spent at the baseline
10%
Each reinvention is a step up, and the baseline closes in behind it. Reinvent every 2 quarters and a gap stays open. Every 8 quarters and the market keeps catching you.

The toolkit on this page

LayerWhat it does hereClient costCharts
D3 (d3-scale, d3-shape, d3-array)Scales, curves, areas, and stats. The maths only; React draws the SVG.Small, tree-shaken01, 02, 07, 09
MotionScroll-linked progress, path drawing, morphing between states, in-view playback.Already in the site01, 07, 09
RechartsOff-the-shelf lines, areas, bars, stacked and diverging bars, synced tooltips, animated data swaps.Largest of the three03, 04, 05, 06, 08
Server Component SVGD3 geometry computed at build time and shipped as static SVG.0 KB client JS02